After discussion with AshishS about the treaty, I am becoming more and more convinced that this treaty is a bad thing, and India must not sign it.
Has No Bearing On Nuclear TestsPM assured as in the Parliament that this treaty does not stop India from doing further nuclear tests. What is the difference between these two scenarios:
a) The treaty does not say anything about nuclear tests, but is signed with an understanding that India will not do any further tests.
b) Treaty forbids India from doing further tests?
If b was the case, should India have signed the treaty with equal ease? Would PM be able to make the statement he made above? But b is not the case, and a is. How does it matter if the treaty explicitly forbids or if its implicit, the fact of the matter is India can not do nuclear tests as long as this treaty is in effect. Treaty forbids tests, and PM is on record saying the contrary. You may say but its not written in the 27 page document, so talking technicality, I win ha ha ha! But trust me, its the US who is going home laughing not you.
Did PM Lie?Don't ascribe to malice anything that can be adequately explained by stupidity. To agree that he lied to us, would be to agree that he knew all this nuances in the treaty, and knowingly avoided telling it in Parliament to get the treaty through for some political or personal reason, and had reasons to believe that he can get away with it. To me that is like giving too much credit to Manmohan Singh, he is not that smart. Bush is. But he is not. US administration out smarted him, they put an excellent piece of lawyering, and poor India, we were not even
allowed to have a lawyer be involved in the drafting of the treaty. If we were not the one being screwed over, I might have appreciated the smartness of the move.
No PM did not lie. Our PM probably has no more ambition that thinking "If I sit completely still, and don't move at all, not even blink my eyes, ignore what is happening around me, I might last my term! Wouldn't that be cool!". Scathing attack you say? We we, Indians, realize the follies of our leaders and we write articles about them, we criticize them, but when outsiders realize their gullibilities, they use it to their advantage, exactly what US is doing right now in my opinion.
Treaty Can Be Revoked By Either SideAshish objected to above argument by saying India can revoke the treaty. Now this is a pandora's box to me. What is the procedure to revoke the treaty? Having a simplistic world view in which "one day we sign the treat, treaty comes into full effect, then some other day we revoke the treaty and treaty is gone" is too simplistic in my opinion, black and white. What about the concept of "voilating the treaty". What are the penalties for it? India will just stop getting more Uranium supplies? Thats it? In my opinion voilating a treaty between two countries is an open invitation to act of war.
"Why US Wants This Treaty More Than Us" Or The Question Of "Why Now"You would say: oh come-on, US is not going to go to war with India, what am I smoking? I am not saying they will. Diplomacy is the art of nuances and subtleties and sophistication or elaborate arguments under the shadow of war. Lets look at the US motives. India had an offer for such an treaty since almost the beginning of the current sanctions, soon after we conducted the tests, our PM was in US, trying to revoke part of the sanctions to allow for civil nuclear energy production. It was denied, and was never under consideration till about few months ago. What, did India suddenly revived diplomatic efforts for this treaty, or could it be the timing of this treaty has something to do with US interests. They say US interest is purely financial. Sure it is financial, but it always was financial. Why now?
During the Iraq war, US asked for Indian assistance in the form of direct army involvement, then in the form of peace keeping force, then finally as police force for new Iraq government. India politely declined. We are not the only one who were approached and declined. Precisely my point. US is almost completely cornered in Iraq. Iraq is far from over, they still are increasing the troop deployment there. The Iraq episode of US-requests-troops-India-declines is not even over yet, and trouble is brewing in Iran. Same episode would be repeated there if things go out of control. And then Pakistan, Osama is still hiding there, may be with change of govt in US after 2008 elections, some front may open in Pakistan too? Would India offer troops?
May be India will. Or may be India will not. India will do what is in our best interest and is based on our values. You know why, because India is a free country. We have the sovereign right to take decisions, without getting approval of other countries. We are proud of this fact, and hold this dearly in our hearts, and will defend jealously any attempts to tarnish it in any fashion.
A shadow of the war can limit our freedom.
This brings us to violation of treaty and not revocation. It is not in US's interest to revoke it, but violation if proven can serve them.
The TrapLook at article 1.M:
"Peaceful purposes" include the use of information, nuclear material, equipment or components in such fields as research, power generation, medicine, agriculture and industry, but do not include use in research on, or development of any nuclear explosive device or any other military purpose.
Article 2.3 talks about information and material transfer. Article 3 is all about Transfer of Information. Article 14.1 states termination period of a year. 16.3 states even if the treaty is terminated by a party, provisions of this treaty will still be applicable.
To adhere to this treaty India will have to prove that any material or information transferred will not be used for military purpose. There are guidelines about how to secure materials, but none on information. And yet information has a section devoted on it. Who will you prove, beyond doubt if alleged that such violation has not happened? Information containment can only be achieved by segregating our nuclear scientists and all research facilities into those that are working on nuclear energy applications and those working on that for military purposes.
It would never be possible for India to prove any of that. And therefor never for us to say we are not in the violation of the agreement.
The treaty is a trap. Section 14.4 states a requirement for return of what has been obtained during this treaty. By the very nature, fuel gets spent when nuclear energy is produced. We would spend the fuel we will get, and yet we will have to return all that fuel once this treaty has been terminated. US would not allow us to borrow nuclear fuel from other sources to return.
In Conclusion
Even if India today scraps all its nuclear military research, and consumes what has been provided due to this treaty for peaceful purposes, on cessation of this treaty India will have to somehow return the Uranium that we would have exhausted. If we continue our nuclear defense programs, it would be impossible for India to prove that information has not been shared between military and peaceful applications. We are under complete whims of US to decide if we are violating the treaty or not.
US can take us to security council if they feel a international treaty has been violated by a country, and the conditions are not being met. This would be a huge crisis for us, and will give US ample room for arm-twisting India into conceding lesser demands like agreeing to send troops in the next war US decides to wage.
PS: Please post your views on this matter on somepickle.in.